Which Half Do Favourites Win More? First vs Second Half by Price
Across 75,045 priced matches, the favourite wins the second half more often than the first in every price band. Winning both halves is much rarer than most bettors expect.
It's the question behind most of my half time/full time predictions: when the favourite wins, which half does the damage? A full-time win tells you very little about how the match actually unfolded, and the half markets price those two periods separately. So I split every match into two 45-minute results and checked how often the favourite took each one, at each price.
The headline answer is the second half. Across 21 European divisions the favourite won the second half 41.8% of the time against 37.8% for the first. It won at least one half in 63.9% of matches but both halves in only 15.6%. That gap between "at least one" and "both" is where most of the betting interest sits.
Test 1Favourites win the second half more often at every price
Each row pairs the favourite's first-half win rate with its second-half rate. The second-half dot sits to the right in every band, with gaps between +3.1 and +5.9 points. At <1.30 the favourite won the first half 61.5% of the time and the second half 66.8%. At 2.30+ those figures drop to 29.7% and 32.8%.
Both rates sit well below the match-win rate of 50.5%, and the reason is drawn halves. The first half was level in 41.5% of matches and the second half in 35.3%. A 0-0 first half doesn't count as a win, and that happens a lot.
Error bar = 95% range on the second-half rate.
View the data: favourite wins the half, by 1x2 price
| First half | Second half | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fav <1.30 (3,680 matches) | 61.5% | 66.8% | ±1.5 |
| Fav 1.30-1.49 (5,943 matches) | 50.9% | 56.8% | ±1.3 |
| Fav 1.50-1.74 (11,632 matches) | 43.6% | 48.6% | ±0.9 |
| Fav 1.75-1.99 (13,890 matches) | 38.3% | 42.2% | ±0.8 |
| Fav 2.00-2.29 (19,624 matches) | 34.0% | 37.3% | ±0.7 |
| Fav 2.30+ (20,276 matches) | 29.7% | 32.8% | ±0.6 |
What I take from this is simple. If I back a favourite in a half market, the second half is the more natural home for it. Strong sides tend to wear opponents down, and tired legs and chasing teams give them space after the break.
Test 2Winning both halves is the exception, even for big favourites
This chart sorts every match by how many halves the favourite won. The middle slice, one half, is the largest in most bands. Even at <1.30 the favourite won both halves in only 39.3% of matches, while 11.1% of those heavy favourites won neither half.
Down at 2.30+ the picture flips. The favourite won both halves in just 8.9% of matches and failed to win either half in 46.4%. In the 1.75-1.99 band, where a lot of ordinary league favourites sit, it was 15.5% for both halves against 35.0% for neither.
View the data: how many halves the favourite wins
| Both halves | One half | Neither half | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fav <1.30 | 39.3% | 49.6% | 11.1% |
| Fav 1.30-1.49 | 27.1% | 53.5% | 19.4% |
| Fav 1.50-1.74 | 20.0% | 52.2% | 27.8% |
| Fav 1.75-1.99 | 15.5% | 49.5% | 35.0% |
| Fav 2.00-2.29 | 12.2% | 47.1% | 40.8% |
| Fav 2.30+ | 8.9% | 44.6% | 46.4% |
Bettors often treat a short favourite as a team that controls the whole match. The data says it usually controls one half and draws or loses the other.
Test 3Fair odds for both halves stretch quickly as the price drifts
Here I've turned the hit rates into fair odds with no margin. A <1.30 favourite winning at least one half carries fair odds of 1.12, with a both-halves price of 2.54. In the 1.50-1.74 band those become 1.39 and 5.00. At 2.30+ they reach 1.87 and 11.24.
These are illustrative prices from observed frequencies, not returns. My main caveat is that half markets carry their own bookmaker margin, which isn't in this data, and every band mixes leagues and seasons. A single team can behave very differently from these averages.
| Fav price | Matches | Match win | Wins a half | Fair | Wins both | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | 3,680 | 82.7% | 88.9% | 1.12 | 39.3% | 2.54 |
| 1.30-1.49 | 5,943 | 70.9% | 80.6% | 1.24 | 27.1% | 3.69 |
| 1.50-1.74 | 11,632 | 59.9% | 72.2% | 1.39 | 20.0% | 5.00 |
| 1.75-1.99 | 13,890 | 51.4% | 65.0% | 1.54 | 15.5% | 6.45 |
| 2.00-2.29 | 19,624 | 44.8% | 59.2% | 1.69 | 12.2% | 8.20 |
| 2.30+ | 20,276 | 38.0% | 53.6% | 1.87 | 8.9% | 11.24 |
I use the table as a benchmark. If a quoted both-halves price sits below the fair figure for that band, the margin has already eaten the value.
Test 4Underdogs take a half far more often than their price suggests
Flip the view to the outsider. Across all matches the underdog won at least one half 38.9% of the time. Against favourites at <1.30 that fell to 17.3%, but against favourites at 2.30+ it rose to 48.0%, close to a coin flip.
For HT/FT and half-result bettors, that matters. A lightly priced favourite isn't a team that dominates from start to finish. Nearly half the time, the other side wins a 45-minute spell.
View the data: underdog wins at least one half
| Share of matches where the outsider takes a half | |
|---|---|
| Fav <1.30 | 17.3% |
| Fav 1.30-1.49 | 24.6% |
| Fav 1.50-1.74 | 32.8% |
| Fav 1.75-1.99 | 37.5% |
| Fav 2.00-2.29 | 42.4% |
| Fav 2.30+ | 48.0% |
This is the chart I return to most when I look at the longer favourite bands. The outsider winning a half is a normal part of these matches, not an upset.
Lab verdict
| Second half over first | In every price band the favourite won the second half more often than the first, with gaps between +3.1 and +5.9 points. If you're backing a favourite in one half, the second half is the stronger starting point. |
|---|---|
| Both halves needs shortness | Only favourites at <1.30 won both halves with any regularity, at 39.3% (fair odds 2.54). At 2.30+ it falls to 8.9%, so compare any price with the fair 11.24 before taking it. |
| Check against the margin | These fair odds carry no margin and no real prices were tested, so none of this is achievable profit. Treat the table as a yardstick, and only consider a bet when the price on offer beats it. |
Questions bettors ask
Do favourites win the first or second half more often?
Favourites win the second half more often. Across 75,045 matches they won the second half 41.8% of the time against 37.8% for the first half.
How often does a favourite win both halves?
Across all bands the favourite won both halves in 15.6% of matches. Even favourites priced <1.30 managed it only 39.3% of the time.
How often does an underdog win at least one half?
The underdog won at least one half in 38.9% of all matches. That rose to 48.0% against favourites priced 2.30+ and fell to 17.3% against favourites at <1.30.
I'm Daniel Pendleton, and after years of obsessing over match patterns, I now focus my betting writing on HT/FT outcomes and corner markets.
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