Has Home Win & Over 2.5 Got Rarer? 21 Seasons of Results
Twenty-one seasons of European league results show the home win and over 2.5 double is as common as ever. What changed is underneath it.
Thomas BeckwithAccumulator & Multi-Bet specialistReviewed by Oliver Hartley, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
Every so often a reader tells me the home win and over 2.5 double isn't what it used to be. Their argument is that home advantage has faded and the combo has faded with it. That matters if you build weekend multis around it, so I tested it across 155,895 matches in 22 European league divisions, from 2005/06 to 2025/26. My home win and over 2.5 bets page has the week-to-week record, and this study takes the long view.
The short answer is no, it hasn't got rarer. The combo landed 26.0% of the time overall. It was 24.7% in 2005/06 and 26.8% in 2025/26, and the only real dip came in 2020/21. The real change is in the two legs, which have drifted in opposite directions and now travel together more often than they used to.
Test 1The combo rate has held steady across 21 seasons
The top line is how often the home side won and the match produced three or more goals. The best season was 2010/11 at 27.2% and the worst was 2020/21 at 23.8%. Most seasons sit in a narrow band either side of the long-run figure.
The lower line is what you get if you strip the margin from a major bookmaker's 1X2 and Over/Under 2.5 prices and multiply the two chances together. In 2025/26 that came to 22.3%, against an actual rate of 26.8%. The two lines never cross, and I come back to why in the last chart.
View the data: home win & over 2.5 by season
| Actual | Multiplied priced chance | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 24.7% | 21.4% |
| 2006/07 | 26.1% | 21.4% |
| 2007/08 | 26.2% | 21.5% |
| 2008/09 | 25.2% | 21.6% |
| 2009/10 | 26.3% | 21.5% |
| 2010/11 | 27.2% | 21.8% |
| 2011/12 | 27.1% | 22.6% |
| 2012/13 | 26.7% | 22.6% |
| 2013/14 | 26.3% | 22.2% |
| 2014/15 | 25.3% | 21.6% |
| 2015/16 | 25.6% | 21.4% |
| 2016/17 | 27.0% | 21.8% |
| 2017/18 | 26.7% | 22.3% |
| 2018/19 | 25.9% | 21.9% |
| 2019/20 | 25.9% | 22.0% |
| 2020/21 | 23.8% | 20.4% |
| 2021/22 | 24.8% | 21.3% |
| 2022/23 | 26.1% | 21.6% |
| 2023/24 | 26.9% | 22.9% |
| 2024/25 | 26.3% | 22.2% |
| 2025/26 | 26.8% | 22.3% |
One honest caveat before you read too much into the wiggles. Season-to-season moves of 1 point are within normal variation for about 7,000 matches, so most of the bumps here are noise. Only 2020/21 clearly stands out.
Test 2Home wins slipped while overs climbed and cancelled out
Split the double into its legs and the picture is less calm. The home win rate moved from 44.9% in 2005/06 to 43.0% in 2025/26. Over the same stretch, Over 2.5 moved from 45.1% to 52.2%.
So a modest decline in the home leg was offset by a bigger rise in goals. The overall combo rate stayed steady, but the way it gets there has changed.
View the data: the two legs by season
| Home win | Over 2.5 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 44.9% | 45.1% |
| 2006/07 | 46.4% | 46.3% |
| 2007/08 | 45.3% | 47.3% |
| 2008/09 | 45.2% | 47.0% |
| 2009/10 | 46.0% | 47.7% |
| 2010/11 | 45.5% | 49.6% |
| 2011/12 | 44.8% | 50.6% |
| 2012/13 | 43.7% | 50.9% |
| 2013/14 | 44.9% | 49.4% |
| 2014/15 | 44.2% | 47.9% |
| 2015/16 | 43.7% | 49.0% |
| 2016/17 | 45.2% | 49.1% |
| 2017/18 | 44.3% | 50.1% |
| 2018/19 | 44.1% | 49.4% |
| 2019/20 | 43.5% | 50.4% |
| 2020/21 | 40.8% | 47.9% |
| 2021/22 | 42.5% | 49.1% |
| 2022/23 | 44.3% | 49.3% |
| 2023/24 | 43.0% | 53.1% |
| 2024/25 | 43.8% | 50.7% |
| 2025/26 | 43.0% | 52.2% |
For anyone stacking these in a multi, that matters. The double survived because goals made up for a weaker home leg, not because nothing changed.
Test 3A growing share of home wins now clears 2.5 goals
This chart asks a narrower question. When the home side wins, how often does the match also go over 2.5? In the earliest era it was 56.4%. It sat at 59.4% in both middle eras and reached 60.4% in the most recent one.
Even 2020/21, highlighted because so many matches were played without crowds, held at 58.3%. Home teams won less often that season, but when they did win, the goals still tended to come.
View the data: home wins with 3+ goals, by era
| Share of home wins that also went over 2.5 | |
|---|---|
| 2005/06–2009/10 | 56.4% |
| 2010/11–2014/15 | 59.4% |
| 2015/16–2019/20 | 59.4% |
| 2020/21 | 58.3% |
| 2021/22–2025/26 | 60.4% |
This link between the legs is what I rely on most. If you think the home side wins, you have already done most of the work on the overs.
Test 4Every era landed well above the multiplied priced chance
Group the seasons into eras and the gap between the two lines is consistent. In 2005/06–2009/10 the combo landed 25.7% against a multiplied priced chance of 21.5%. In 2021/22–2025/26 it landed 26.2% against 22.1%. Even 2020/21 showed the same pattern, at 23.8% against 20.4%.
The gap exists because multiplying two prices assumes the legs are independent, and they are not. Home wins and goals go together, as the previous chart showed, so the simple calculation underestimates the true chance every season.
View the data: era by era: priced vs actual
| Multiplied priced chance | Actually landed | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06–2009/10 (34,856 matches) | 21.5% | 25.7% | ±0.5 |
| 2010/11–2014/15 (37,749 matches) | 22.2% | 26.5% | ±0.4 |
| 2015/16–2019/20 (37,965 matches) | 21.9% | 26.2% | ±0.4 |
| 2020/21 (7,636 matches) | 20.4% | 23.8% | ±1 |
| 2021/22–2025/26 (37,689 matches) | 22.1% | 26.2% | ±0.4 |
I need to be careful with this point. The multiplied chance is not a price you can actually back, because same-match builders already allow for the link between the legs. The gap shows that the legs are correlated. It is not an edge waiting to be collected.
Lab verdict
| Treat 2020/21 as an outlier | The combo dropped to 23.8% in a season with many matches played behind closed doors. Leave it out of any long-run expectation. |
|---|---|
| Compare builders with 26.0% | The fair benchmark is the actual long-run rate of 26.0%, not the multiplied 22.3% from 2025/26. Builder prices already account for the correlation, and that multiplied figure was never available to back. |
| The home leg does the work | With 60.4% of home wins going over 2.5 in the latest era, the double mostly comes down to whether the home side wins. If you aren't confident in the home side, skip the bet rather than look to the goals line to rescue it. |
Questions bettors ask
How often does home win and over 2.5 land?
Across 155,895 European league matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26, it landed 26.0% of the time. The best season was 2010/11 at 27.2%.
Has falling home advantage made the double rarer?
No. The home win rate eased from 44.9% to 43.0%, but Over 2.5 rose from 45.1% to 52.2%. The combo actually went from 24.7% in 2005/06 to 26.8% in 2025/26.
Is multiplying the single prices a fair way to price the double?
No. It understates the real chance because the legs are linked. In 2025/26 the multiplied chance was 22.3% against an actual 26.8%, and builders already price in that link.
I'm Thomas Beckwith, and I write about accumulators and multi-bet builds, where the discipline lives in what you leave off the slip.
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