Which Leagues Underprice the Draw? Flat-Stake Draw Returns
I backed the draw in 75,471 European league matches. The market prices it well almost everywhere, and short draws hold up far better than long ones.
The draw is the result most punters leave alone, and it's the one I hear called 'underpriced' more than any other. So I tested the simplest version of that idea: a flat stake on the draw in every match across 22 European divisions from 2016/17 to 2025/26. I priced every bet at a major bookmaker and at the best available price.
The short answer is that blind backing doesn't work. All matches combined returned −6.2% at a major bookmaker and −1.3% at the best price. A handful of leagues finished ahead, led by Serie B at +4.0%. The more useful finding sits in the price bands, and it shapes how I approach the draw on my 1X2 bet tips page.
Test 1Serie B tops the draw table, Scottish League Two props it up
The chart shows the best and worst 8 of the 22 divisions, with the major-bookmaker return and the best-price return side by side. Serie B leads at +4.0% (+9.3% at best price), followed by the Scottish Championship at +1.5% and the Bundesliga at +0.9%. At the bottom, the Primeira Liga returned −13.4% and Scottish League Two −13.5%.
For me, the gap between the two bars is the real story. The Eredivisie moves from −2.6% to +3.5% purely on price, and even the National League improves from −10.6% to −6.0%. Shopping around doesn't turn a bad bet into a good one, but it shifts the whole chart in your favour.
View the data: backing every draw: return by league
| Major bookmaker | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Serie B | +4.0% | +9.3% |
| Scottish Championship | +1.5% | +7.2% |
| Bundesliga | +0.9% | +6.7% |
| Eredivisie | −2.6% | +3.5% |
| 2. Bundesliga | −3.7% | +1.4% |
| Serie A | −3.8% | +1.4% |
| La Liga | −4.2% | +0.9% |
| Segunda División | −4.8% | +0.1% |
| Scottish Premiership | −7.4% | −1.7% |
| Championship | −7.9% | −4.6% |
| League One | −8.7% | −4.8% |
| Ligue 2 | −9.9% | −5.0% |
| National League | −10.6% | −6.0% |
| Scottish League One | −11.7% | −5.5% |
| Primeira Liga | −13.4% | −8.4% |
| Scottish League Two | −13.5% | −8.4% |
| All 22 divisions | −6.2% | −1.3% |
My caveat matters here. A few points either way over 3,000–5,000 matches is well within ordinary variance, so Serie B's +4.0% is a result, not a system. The best-price figures also assume you could take every top price in full, and in practice you often can't.
Test 2More draws does not mean the draw is underpriced
This table ranks the eight most draw-heavy divisions and sets their actual draw rate against the margin-free priced rate. Serie B is the outlier, with 32.5% draws against 29.1% priced, a gap of +3.4 points. The Scottish Championship, at 28.8% against 26.3%, is the only other positive return on the list.
Ligue 2 is the warning. It draws 28.4% of the time, yet the market priced 29.1%, and the return was −9.9%. Segunda División draws 30.1% and still returned −4.8%, because the prices already accounted for it.
| League | Matches | Draws | Priced | Gap (pts) | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 3,916 | 32.5% | 29.1% | +3.4 | +4.0% |
| Segunda División | 4,598 | 30.1% | 29.5% | +0.6 | −4.8% |
| Scottish Championship | 1,690 | 28.8% | 26.3% | +2.5 | +1.5% |
| Ligue 2 | 3,547 | 28.4% | 29.1% | −0.7 | −9.9% |
| Super League Greece | 1,807 | 27.0% | 26.0% | +1.0 | −5.5% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 3,060 | 27.0% | 26.3% | +0.7 | −3.7% |
| League Two | 5,399 | 26.9% | 27.3% | −0.4 | −6.9% |
| Championship | 5,516 | 26.2% | 27.2% | −1.0 | −7.9% |
This is the trap I see most often. A league with a reputation for draws doesn't give you an edge, because the odds usually reflect that reputation. What matters is the gap between actual and priced, and in most of these divisions that gap is under a point either way.
Test 3Short-priced draws land slightly more often, long ones land less
Each band compares the margin-free priced draw rate with how often the draw actually landed, with a 95% range. Under 3.00, draws landed 34.7% of the time against 32.5% priced, and the flat-stake return was 0.0%. In the busiest band, 3.30–3.59, priced and actual both sit at 27.5% across 24,585 matches, which is about as accurate as a market gets.
At 5.00 or more, the picture turns. Those draws landed 13.9% of the time against 15.3% priced, and the return was −14.7%. The longer the draw price, the worse blind backing has done.
View the data: draw price bands: priced vs actual draw rate
| Priced | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.00 (2,867 matches) | 32.5% | 34.7% | ±1.7 |
| 3.00–3.29 (17,751 matches) | 29.7% | 30.8% | ±0.7 |
| 3.30–3.59 (24,585 matches) | 27.5% | 27.5% | ±0.6 |
| 3.60–3.99 (14,994 matches) | 25.3% | 25.1% | ±0.7 |
| 4.00–4.99 (9,597 matches) | 21.9% | 20.9% | ±0.8 |
| 5.00 or more (5,677 matches) | 15.3% | 13.9% | ±0.9 |
I find this more useful than any league table. When I fancy a draw, it's usually in a tight, evenly matched game where the price is short anyway, and this data suggests the market is, if anything, slightly generous there. A big-priced draw in a mismatch is where I need the strongest reason to bet.
Test 4No season returned a profit at a major bookmaker
The last chart tracks the blind draw return season by season. At a major bookmaker it never broke even, ranging from −8.4% in 2022/23 to −3.6% in 2023/24. At best price it ranged from −3.4% to +1.7%, edging above zero in 2019/20 and 2023/24.
View the data: backing every draw: return by season
| Major bookmaker | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | −7.2% | −3.1% |
| 2017/18 | −6.1% | −1.7% |
| 2018/19 | −6.0% | −1.6% |
| 2019/20 | −5.5% | 0.2% |
| 2020/21 | −7.9% | −2.1% |
| 2021/22 | −6.6% | −0.9% |
| 2022/23 | −8.4% | −3.4% |
| 2023/24 | −3.6% | 1.7% |
| 2024/25 | −5.2% | −0.5% |
| 2025/26 | −5.1% | −1.3% |
That consistency is the point. The margin on the draw stays steady from year to year, so any edge has to come from the individual match, not from the market as a whole.
Lab verdict
| Blind draw backing | Across all 75,471 matches it returned −6.2% at a major bookmaker and −1.3% at best price. It doesn't work as a default bet in any season tested. |
|---|---|
| Short-priced draws | Draws priced under 3.00 landed 34.7% of the time against 32.5% priced, for a flat return of 0.0%. This is the band where a match-specific reason has the best chance of adding value. |
| League reputation alone | Serie B's +4.0% and its +3.4-point gap stand out, but Ligue 2 draws 28.4% of the time and returned −9.9%. Compare actual with priced draw rates, and treat small league edges as variance. |
Questions bettors ask
Is it profitable to back the draw in every match?
Not historically. Over 75,471 European league matches, flat-stake draw backing returned −6.2% at a major bookmaker and −1.3% at the best available price.
Which league has the most draws?
Serie B was the most draw-heavy division, with 32.5% draws against 29.1% priced. It was also the best division for blind draw backing at +4.0%, though that sits within normal variance.
Are long-priced draws good value?
Not in this sample. Draws priced 5.00 or more landed 13.9% of the time against 15.3% priced, a flat-stake return of −14.7%.
I'm a football betting writer specializing in 1X2 markets and yellow card props, built on years of tracking team patterns, referee tendencies, and the small details others overlook.
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