Are Bookmaker Margins Falling? 1X2, Goals and Handicap by Season
Ten seasons of prices across 22 European divisions show margins are not falling everywhere. The match result has got dearer while goals and handicap markets have not.
The usual assumption is that competition has steadily squeezed bookmaker margins thinner. I wanted to test that properly, so we took prices from 22 European league divisions between 2016/17 and 2025/26 and measured the overround on three markets: 1X2, Over/Under 2.5 and the Asian handicap. If you use my football 1X2 tips page, this is the cost built into every price I discuss.
The short answer is no, at least not for the match result. The 1X2 margin at a major bookmaker went from 5.4% to 7.7%. The goals market eased from 6.6% to 5.6%, and the quoted handicap finished exactly where it started, at 4.7%. The three markets have moved in different directions, and that split matters more to a bettor than any single headline trend.
Test 1The 1X2 margin rose while the goals market got cheaper
This chart tracks the average overround per season at a major bookmaker. The 1X2 line bottoms out at 5.3% in 2018/19, steps up to 6.4% in 2019/20, holds roughly level for several seasons and then jumps to 7.7% in 2025/26. Over/Under 2.5 heads the other way, drifting down from 6.6% to 5.6%.
The handicap line is the cheapest of the three throughout. It drops sharply in 2019/20, reaches a low of 3.6% in 2020/21, and climbs back to 4.7% in the final season.
View the data: margins by season at a major bookmaker
| 1X2 | Over/Under 2.5 | Asian handicap (quoted) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% |
| 2017/18 | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% |
| 2018/19 | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% |
| 2019/20 | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| 2020/21 | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| 2021/22 | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% |
| 2022/23 | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% |
| 2023/24 | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| 2024/25 | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% |
| 2025/26 | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% |
My main caveat sits here. The sudden steps, especially the 2025/26 jump, may partly reflect changes in when the recorded prices were taken rather than pure pricing policy. The handicap prices may also come from a different feed, so read the comparisons between markets as indicative rather than exact.
Test 2Lower divisions took most of the 1X2 margin increase
Splitting the change by tier makes the 1X2 story clearer. In the top flights the match-result margin moved by +0.9 points between the first and last seasons. In the lower divisions it moved by +3.4 points, several times as much.
The goals market improved in both tiers: −0.8 points in the top flights and −1.2 points lower down. The handicap barely moved, at +0.1 and −0.2 points respectively.
View the data: change in margin, 2016/17 to 2025/26
| Top flights | Lower divisions | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | +0.9 pts | +3.4 pts |
| Over/Under 2.5 | −0.8 pts | −1.2 pts |
| Asian handicap | +0.1 pts | −0.2 pts |
For me, this is the most useful chart in the study. If you bet the match result in smaller leagues, you are paying noticeably more for it than you were. The same fixtures priced on goals or handicap have not followed that path.
Test 3Even the best available prices now carry a real margin
Here we use the top price for each outcome across bookmakers. In 2016/17 a bettor who always took the best 1X2 price faced a margin of just 0.6%, close to a fair book. By 2025/26 that figure was 3.5%. The Over/Under 2.5 best-price margin rose from 1.8% to 4.1%.
The climb is gradual through the middle seasons, with 1X2 at 2.2% and goals at 2.6% in 2024/25, before both step up in the final season.
View the data: margins by season at the best price
| 1X2 best price | Over/Under 2.5 best price | |
|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| 2017/18 | 0.7% | 1.9% |
| 2018/19 | 0.9% | 1.7% |
| 2019/20 | 1.0% | 1.6% |
| 2020/21 | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 2021/22 | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| 2022/23 | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| 2023/24 | 1.6% | 2.2% |
| 2024/25 | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| 2025/26 | 3.5% | 4.1% |
Shopping around still helps. The best-price 1X2 margin in 2025/26 is less than half the single-bookmaker figure. It no longer comes close to removing the margin, though.
Test 4Every season priced the handicap below the match result
The table puts every season side by side. Each one contains between 6,830 and 7,793 matches with all three markets priced, so the comparison is like for like. The smallest sample is 2019/20, when some lower divisions ended early.
In every season the Asian handicap carried a lower average margin than the 1X2 market. The gap was +0.7 points in 2016/17 and +3.0 points in 2025/26.
| Season | Matches | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | Asian hcp | 1X2 best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 7,793 | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| 2017/18 | 7,779 | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| 2018/19 | 7,643 | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| 2019/20 | 6,830 | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| 2020/21 | 7,540 | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| 2021/22 | 7,754 | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| 2022/23 | 7,538 | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2023/24 | 7,519 | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| 2024/25 | 7,083 | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| 2025/26 | 7,611 | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
The gap has widened over the decade. If you have a view on a match that can be expressed either way, the cost of choosing the 1X2 has grown.
Lab verdict
| Lower-league match results | This is where margins have risen most, with the 1X2 overround up +3.4 points in the lower divisions. Check the handicap or goals price before backing a result in these leagues. |
|---|---|
| Handicap versus 1X2 | The quoted handicap was cheaper than the 1X2 in every season, by +3.0 points in 2025/26. Because the handicap feed may differ, treat that as a strong pointer rather than an exact figure. |
| Best price still matters | Taking the best 1X2 price cut the 2025/26 margin to 3.5% against 7.7% at a single major bookmaker. That figure is no longer the near-fair 0.6% it was in 2016/17. |
Questions bettors ask
Are bookmaker margins on football going down?
Not on the match result. In this study the average 1X2 margin at a major bookmaker rose from 5.4% in 2016/17 to 7.7% in 2025/26, while Over/Under 2.5 fell from 6.6% to 5.6%.
Which football betting market has the lowest margin?
Of the three markets tested, the Asian handicap was cheapest in every season. It stood at 4.7% in 2025/26, with a low of 3.6% in 2020/21.
How much does taking the best price reduce the bookmaker margin?
A lot, though less than it used to. In 2025/26 the best-price 1X2 margin was 3.5%, against 7.7% at a single major bookmaker, compared with 0.6% at the best price in 2016/17.
I'm Oliver Hartley, editor at BetTips App, and after eight years in football betting writing I now oversee our weekly previews and keep our team's analysis honest.
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